As you know, after the unsuccessful rebellion of the head of the Wagner PMC, Mr. Prigozhin, this private army came under the care of Alexander Lukashenko and is being redeployed to the territory of Belarus.
PMC Wagner is characterized as the most combat-ready part of the Russian army that participated in the battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
As a result of an unsuccessful rebellion, PMC Wagner in Russia was destroyed as an integral military unit, and its leaders go over to the side and under the control of the power structures of Belarus.
The leader of Belarus in this case receives a fired, proven private military campaign that can do three things — stabilize the Lukashenka regime in case of a threat of internal upheaval, counter the provocations of the Russian army in Belarus against Lukashenka himself, and act as a strike unit against Ukraine — for example, in the event of a decision to attack Kiev from North.
Let’s analyze three cases in more detail.
Stabilization of Lukashenka’s regime. Here it must be said that the army and power structures of Belarus do not have real combat experience. they did not participate in the war against Ukraine on earth.
There is an army in Belarus, but how it will behave on the battlefield is unknown. Whether she will be able to resist the armed opposition in the person of the Kalinovsky regiment is unknown.
But in this case, you can rely on PMC Wagner, the combat properties of Prigozhin’s army are known from the battles on the Russian-Ukrainian front.
As a bonus, Alexander Lukashenko, together with PMC Wagner, gets access to African countries where PMC fighters operate.
This is a bonus component that the leader of Belarus can use to increase the international weight of his country.
Confrontation of Russian policy in Belarus.
Belarus as a country is under the umbrella of neighboring Russia. In order to conduct a policy without looking back every time at the opinion of the Kremlin, Lukashenka needs military force.
In principle, if Belarus goes beyond certain borders in foreign policy, Russia can send troops to Minsk and, under the threat of force, dictate Lukashenka’s line of conduct.
In extreme cases, by force, the Russian leadership can remove Lukashenka from the post of President of Belarus and replace him with a person more obedient to the Kremlin.
In this case, PMC Wagner, who has experience in military operations both in Ukraine and in Russia, can successfully confront the Russian army on the battlefield.
Of course, this is the most extreme version of the development of events, but the Belarusian leader is insured about this as well.
Attack on Kyiv from Belarus by PMC Wagner
The most unlikely scenario. Even if we imagine that the entire Wagner will be relocated to Belarus, then its numbers will still be small for a successful attack on Kyiv.
The most important argument against such a development of the situation can be expressed in one question. Why Lukashenka needs a campaign against Kyiv
If in the most favorable months of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Lukashenka did not consider it necessary to participate in the military adventure of the Russian leadership, then why does he need it now
Strategically, Russia lost the war against Ukraine back in May last year, when a coalition of 50 world economies decided to support the victim of aggression with military supplies.
Since the spring of last year, the Russian army has been slowly but steadily losing its positions on the fronts in Ukraine.
To take the side of the loser now, in the summer of 2023, is clearly not in the interests of the Belarusian dictator.
Thus, PMC Wagner in Belarus solves the internal problems of the country and is in no way directed against neighboring Ukraine.
