This is not just a replenishment of the tank fleet or aircraft. Deliveries of the latest Western weapons to Ukraine is something more
Let’s deal with the supply of tanks to Ukraine and, accordingly, by analogy with the supply of combat aircraft to Ukraine in the next few months
From a military point of view, this is undoubtedly an increase in the military potential of Ukraine.
Modern Western tanks are undoubtedly head and shoulders above the modernized Soviet tanks from the 80s of the last century.
This is the advantage that can be realized on the battlefield in the form of a successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, the supply of tanks is also a political signal to the Russian leadership.
A signal that military support for Ukraine will continue until Kyiv wins the Russian-Ukrainian war, and on the terms of the Ukrainian leadership.
This is the first part of the message to Moscow. But there is a second one — she says that the time has come for Russia to recognize the following things.
That the Russian Federation lost the Russian-Ukrainian war in strategic terms and the time has come to turn off the so-called. «SVO» and proceed to peace negotiations based on the proposals of the Ukrainian side.
Otherwise, the West will only increase arms supplies to Ukraine and the war will end one way or another.
However, with the continuation of the war, the conditions for its termination will be more and more tightened — up to the complete and unconditional surrender of Russia.
The West is very much afraid of the latter because of the possibility of an uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation, followed by a very likely civil war.
Since the collapse and possible war within ex-Russia will be an even greater headache for the world than the current Russian-Ukrainian war.
It’s all about the population, the vastness of the territory and the fact that the fragments of the Russian Federation have nuclear weapons that can get to outright terrorists and radical groups in the world.
Therefore, the West is pushing the Russian leadership to make the right decision — to withdraw troops to the border on February 24, 2022 and start negotiations on the status of Crimea, Donbass and on the restoration of Ukraine.
It is still possible for Russia to lose this war relatively easily
However, the longer the war drags on and the further the Armed Forces of Ukraine advance and the more weapons the West transfers to Ukraine, the more severe will be the conditions for Russia’s inevitable loss of this war.
The fact that the West is relatively easy to finance and provide for Ukraine and does not experience any fatigue from support is demonstrated by regularly held ramsteins and generous and regular infusions of financial assistance and weapons.
Russia, on the other hand, is costing the war just as hard by the fall in living standards, the outflow of the population from the war, and the death of its citizens.
For the time being, these processes are imperceptible, but in a year or two, they can become a very significant factor in the collapse of the country.
Of particular influence is the fact that there is no rear actually supporting Russia. Support from Eritrea, Belarus, North Korea, and Iran is of little value compared to the 50-nation coalition formed as a result of this war in support of Ukraine.
Thus, the supply of tanks and, in the long term, modern Western aircraft is not only a military step, but also a political appeal to the leadership of the aggressor country — it’s time to end the war, otherwise it will only get worse and worse for you
